Overview
- One month after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Taiwan contingency could meet Japan’s “survival‑threatening” threshold, Beijing continues to frame the remark as a call for intervention and has folded historical messaging into leader‑level outreach.
- Tokyo is deliberately holding to a low‑key response, with a senior Foreign Ministry official saying Japan aims to avoid playing China’s information game.
- After an inappropriate social media post by China’s consul general in Osaka, Japanese officials weighed deportation but decided it would likely elevate him at home, opting instead to avoid steps that could bolster Beijing’s narrative.
- Japan has sent Maritime Self‑Defense Force destroyers through the Taiwan Strait three times since September to signal freedom of navigation, yet senior defense officials now warn another transit could be used as propaganda.
- Diplomatic ground remains difficult: government sources say the U.S. president expressed understanding in a call with Takaichi without offering public support, France is reportedly considering inviting China to next year’s G7, and analysts cite CSIS wargames indicating joint U.S.–Japan action would greatly complicate any PLA bid to seize Taiwan.