Overview

• Japan's latest government report estimates $1.81 trillion in economic losses from a Nankai Trough megaquake, up from previous projections due to inflation and expanded flood zones.
• The probability of a magnitude 8-9 earthquake in the Nankai Trough remains at 80% within the next 30 years, according to the Earthquake Research Committee.
• Worst-case scenarios predict up to 298,000 deaths, primarily from tsunamis and building collapses, if the quake occurs during winter nights.
• A magnitude 9 event could displace 1.23 million people, equivalent to 10% of Japan's population, highlighting the immense humanitarian impact.
• The Nankai Trough, a 900-km subduction zone, has historically produced megaquakes every 100-150 years, with the last occurring in 1946.