Overview

• MAFF’s new outlook puts domestic rice demand at 6.97–7.11 million tonnes through June 2026, with production at 7.28–7.45 million tonnes.
• Private inventories are projected to reach 1.98–2.29 million tonnes by June 2026 after factoring in about 240,000 tonnes released from government reserves, a level at or above industry comfort ranges.
• The average supermarket price rose to ¥4,275 per 5 kg for August 8–14, marking a third straight weekly increase as the share of lower-priced blends fell and non-branded rice became costlier.
• Cumulative sales of reserve rice via direct contracts reached 147,503 tonnes by September 14, with stark prefectural gaps such as Tokyo at 13,359 tonnes versus Akita at 188 tonnes.
• The government shifted in May from competitive bidding to direct sales to retailers to curb distribution costs and high bids, yet many regional stores still report slow or uneven deliveries despite an extended sales deadline.