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Japan Real Wages Drop 2.8% in November as Bonus Payouts Slide

Bonus-driven volatility in preliminary data shifts BOJ attention to spring wage talks.

Overview

  • Inflation-adjusted pay fell 2.8% year on year in November, the steepest decline since January and the 11th straight monthly drop.
  • Special payments, largely one-off bonuses, plunged about 17% from a year earlier, and officials note preliminary November figures often understate winter bonuses.
  • Average total cash earnings rose 0.5% to ¥310,202, marking the slowest nominal wage growth since December 2021.
  • Consumer prices increased 3.3% in November, leaving earnings growth trailing inflation and squeezing purchasing power.
  • The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 0.75% last month, with the outlook tied to spring negotiations as Rengo seeks at least 5% pay increases.