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3h ago

Japan Raises 30-Year Quake Risks for Nemuro and Miyagi as Tottori–Shimane Activity Persists

The annual recalculation reflects elapsed time in the models, not a prediction of imminent timing.

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Overview

  • The government's Earthquake Research Committee lifted the Nemuro-oki megathrust (M7.8–8.5) 30-year probability from about 80% to about 90%.
  • The estimated 30-year likelihood for the landward Miyagi-oki event along the Japan Trench rose to about 80–90% or higher.
  • Results were published on January 14 based on a January 1 reference date used for the committee’s long-term evaluations.
  • After the January 6 M6.4 in eastern Shimane, maximum shaking of shindo 5-strong was recorded in areas including Yasugi City.
  • The committee counted 51 felt quakes through January 12 across an east–west zone of roughly 10 kilometers in Tottori and Shimane, and it urged continued attention to the still-elevated Noto Peninsula sequence.