Overview
- On Friday, June 5 the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry put forward a draft calling for 2–5 reactor replacements in the 2040s and 11–14 by the 2050s, which would add roughly 16 gigawatts if all are built.
- The targets are intended to keep nuclear at about 20 percent of electricity generation by fiscal 2040 to meet rising demand from AI data centres and semiconductor fabs and to lower reliance on imported coal, oil and gas.
- METI says the numerical goals are meant to give utilities and the workforce predictability after years of staggered restarts and to address an industry estimate of a roughly 5.5 million kilowatt shortfall by the 2040s.
- Major obstacles include higher global nuclear construction costs, the fact that many reactors face 60‑year lifespan limits and that 24 units are being decommissioned, plus eroded public trust after revelations such as falsified seismic assessments at Hamaoka.
- The draft has been circulated to internal panels and is expected to seek Cabinet approval in summer 2026 before environmental reviews, local permits and multi‑year construction schedules determine how many replacements actually proceed.