Overview
- MAFF’s Oct. 10 outlook, based on Sept. 25 data, cites expanded planting and favorable weather as drivers of the larger staple-rice crop.
- The projected harvest could outstrip demand by up to roughly 500,000 tonnes, raising the risk of a supply surplus.
- One MAFF survey of about 1,000 supermarkets put the Sept. 29–Oct. 5 average retail price at ¥4,205 per 5kg, marking a third weekly decline.
- A separate MAFF read from roughly 6,000 stores showed ¥4,075 for the same week, up ¥80 as new-rice shipments from Tohoku and Hokuriku lifted offers.
- Retail prices hit a record ¥4,285 in May, eased after reserve releases, then rebounded to ¥4,275 in early September as flows slowed, while producers caution that a rapid drop would squeeze farm incomes and policymakers signal close monitoring.