Overview

• MAFF forecasts 7.477 million tonnes of staple rice for 2025, about 685,000 tonnes more than last year for roughly a 10% increase.
• Officials and reporting attribute the larger crop to expanded planting after last year’s shortage and broadly favorable weather.
• The newly adopted per‑10‑are yield index is estimated at 102, slightly above a trimmed five‑year average baseline.
• A ministry survey of about 1,000 supermarkets shows a 5‑kilogram average price of ¥4,205 for Sept. 29–Oct. 5, down ¥6 week over week and marking a third straight weekly decline.
• A separate MAFF check across roughly 6,000 retail stores puts the 5‑kilogram average at ¥4,075 for the same week, up ¥80 from the prior period, with new‑crop shipments and high preliminary payments seen lifting prices; branded rice averaged ¥4,411.