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Japan Policy Shift Puts Bitcoin’s Rebound at Risk

Investors brace for a potential yen carry‑trade unwind that could sap crypto liquidity.

Overview

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled rate increases could come sooner, pushing Japanese government bond yields to multi‑year highs and lifting the yen.
  • Two‑year JGB yields topped 1% for the first time since 2008 and the 10‑year touched 1.88%, moves that prompted a reassessment of risk exposure.
  • Bitcoin slid from about $93,000 to near $85,000 after the BoJ comments and later traded around $92,235 as traders weighed policy risks.
  • Markets see a high probability of BoJ tightening at the December 18–19 meeting, while attention also turns to the December 9–10 FOMC with elevated odds of a Fed cut.
  • Crypto sentiment remains fragile following sizable ETF outflows and sector setbacks involving MicroStrategy’s leverage and a Tether credit downgrade, despite a brief lift from Japan’s $135 billion stimulus.