Overview

• The government’s July 1 update mandates new embankment construction, upgraded evacuation shelters and more frequent drills to strengthen national readiness.
• Official projections from March estimate a future magnitude 8+ quake and tsunami could cause up to 298,000 deaths and US$2 trillion in economic losses.
• Authorities acknowledge that measures adopted since the 2014 preparedness plan will cut fatalities by only 20%, far below the original 80% reduction target.
• In January, a government panel raised the 30-year probability of a major Nankai Trough quake to between 75% and 82%.
• Japan Meteorological Association chief Ryoichi Nomura warned that precise earthquake prediction remains impossible and urged citizens to focus on preparedness rather than panic.