Overview
- The Japan Meteorological Agency formally declared El Niño has emerged on June 10, and major forecasting centres including Copernicus and ECMWF now assign high odds to a moderate-to-very-strong event.
- Multi-model ensembles shifted sharply higher in late May and early June, producing median November sea-surface anomalies near 3°C and some runs projecting 3.5°C or more in the Niño‑3.4 region.
- Agencies say the most likely outcomes are higher global temperatures and regional shifts in rainfall that threaten crop yields, strain power and water systems, and reduce fishing catches through weakened upwelling.
- India’s meteorological service has already forecast a below-average southwest monsoon and governments are urged to use seasonal forecasts to prepare for drought, flood and energy demand impacts.
- Scientists caution there is still uncertainty because of model spread and seasonal predictability limits, but note satellite and subsurface observations of warm water and Kelvin waves point to strong ocean‑atmosphere coupling if the event amplifies.