January Prisma Fiscal Puts 2026 Primary-Deficit Median at R$72.4 Billion

Overview

• The Finance Ministry’s January Prisma survey lifted the 2026 primary-deficit median to R$72.4 billion from R$72.1 billion.
• For 2027, the primary shortfall median eased to R$51.97 billion, signaling a modestly better outlook for next year.
• The 2026 nominal deficit median is around R$1.039–1.040 trillion, reflecting higher interest costs.
• Debt projections were kept at 83.70% of GDP for end-2026 and 87% for 2027, indicating stable expectations for the debt ratio.
• Medians for federal revenue, net current revenue, and total spending were nudged lower for 2026–2027, while the official 2026 goal remains a primary surplus near R$34 billion with a 0.25-point tolerance band.