Overview

• Dimon says the chance of a serious U.S. market correction is elevated over the next six months to two years, pointing to stretched AI-linked valuations.
• He reiterates that a U.S. recession could occur in 2026, consistent with JPMorgan’s earlier estimate of roughly 40% odds.
• He voices increased concern that inflation may not ease as expected, reinforcing a more cautious economic outlook.
• Despite 3.8% annualized GDP growth last quarter and record stock indexes, he argues investors underprice uncertainty tied to policy and geopolitics.
• He criticizes the ongoing U.S. government shutdown as a bad idea and stresses JPMorgan’s preparedness through rigorous stress testing.