Overview

• In a BBC interview, the JPMorgan CEO said the chance of a sharp correction in U.S. stocks over the next six to 24 months is higher than markets imply, suggesting odds closer to 30% than 10%.
• He maintained that a U.S. recession remains possible in 2026, consistent with JPMorgan’s earlier assessment that recession odds were about 40% this year.
• Dimon said he is a little more nervous that inflation will not ease as expected, noting consumer prices rose 2.9% in the year to August.
• He criticized the ongoing federal shutdown as a bad idea that removes key data for policymakers, even as he downplayed its direct market impact.
• While calling AI a real long-term payoff, he warned that some AI investments will probably be lost and cited geopolitical and remilitarization risks as key market uncertainties.