Overview
- The peer‑reviewed analysis estimates U.S. adult obesity rose from 19.3% in 1990 to 42.5% in 2022 and projects 46.9% by 2035, growing from about 107 million to 126 million people.
- Large gaps persist across groups, with non‑Hispanic Black women at 56.9% in 2022 and higher rates concentrated in Midwestern and Southern states.
- State projections show some of the highest 2035 levels among women in South Dakota at 59.5% and men in Indiana at 53.6%.
- The study pools NHANES, BRFSS and Gallup data covering more than 11 million adults and defines obesity by BMI, which authors note can misclassify body composition and warrants cautious interpretation.
- Coverage highlights that the data end in 2022 as separate surveys reported a 2025 decline to 37% and rapid GLP‑1 uptake, yet experts say the long‑term population impact and equitable access to these drugs remain uncertain, with obesity already linked to rising disease burden and substantial costs.