Overview
- Tapper made the prediction on Oct. 29 during The Reason Interview with editor-at-large Nick Gillespie.
- He said his view is informed partly by his teenagers and their friends, whom he described as more skeptical of progressive ideas.
- He attributed the trend to progressive politics in schools, COVID experiences, and what he called the failures of movements such as Bernie Sanders’ campaigns, Black Lives Matter and #MeToo.
- Media reports paired his remarks with data including Morning Consult’s finding that 24% of Gen Z identify as conservative, up from 18% in 2016.
- Analyses cited in the coverage note Harvard Kennedy School’s estimate that Gen Z favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by four points in 2024 versus Biden’s 25-point edge in 2020, and CIRCLE’s finding that moderates aged 18–29 preferred Trump, while Tapper stressed Trump did not win the youth vote but outperformed prior Republicans.