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Italy’s Pensions Deemed Stable for Now as New Report Flags Risks From Early Exits and Soaring Assistance

Stronger 2024 labor markets narrowed the pension gap, leaving assistance costs plus early-exit rules as the main vulnerabilities.

Overview

  • Pension spending reached €286.14 billion in 2024 against €260.59 billion in contributions, narrowing the cash shortfall to €25.55 billion from €30.72 billion a year earlier.
  • The ratio of active workers to pensioners rose to a record 1.4758, still shy of the 1.5 level the report cites as a safety threshold.
  • Pensioners increased to 16.305 million and pensions in payment topped 23 million, with assistance transfers from general taxation to INPS at about €180 billion and growing faster than pensions.
  • The study urges limiting early-retirement derogations, keeping retirement age tied to life expectancy, expanding employment for young people, women and older workers, and enabling flexible exits after 67.
  • Authors recommend shifting public resources from broad decontribution schemes—estimated at €500 billion over the next decade—toward prevention and technology for older workers, noting total social protection outlays hit €628 billion (56.65% of public spending).