Overview
- Italy’s 2025 hazelnut crop is confirmed at roughly 70,000 tonnes, less than half typical output and the third weak year in a row.
- Retail prices have already climbed, with a 450 g jar of Nutella averaging about €3.79 in Germany, up roughly 27% since 2022, according to Smhaggle.
- Analysts expect further consumer‑price increases as raw‑nut costs rise, though Ferrero has not announced any pricing changes.
- Nutella may be relatively cushioned by its lower hazelnut share of about 13%, while brands using higher nut ratios face greater cost pressure.
- Climate swings and the invasive marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) are cited as key drivers of crop losses, and shifting supply to Turkey, China or a strong U.S. harvest is unlikely to ease near‑term prices.