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Italy’s Economy Stalls in Q3 as Istat Flash Estimate Shows Flat GDP

Preliminary data point to net exports propping up output with domestic demand weakening.

Overview

  • Istat’s preliminary estimate shows GDP unchanged quarter on quarter in Q3 2025 and up 0.4% year on year, keeping 2025 carryover growth at 0.5%.
  • Sector data indicate higher value added in agriculture, a decline in industry, and broadly flat services compared with the previous quarter.
  • On the demand side, national demand made a negative contribution to quarterly growth, while net exports contributed positively.
  • Eurostat’s flash estimate reports Q3 growth of 0.2% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU, with September unemployment steady at 6.3% in the euro area and 6.1% in Italy, and October confidence indicators improving but still below their long‑run average.
  • A consumer survey by Findomestic reports a 26% drop in Italians’ purchase intentions in October compared with the prior month.