Overview

• Italy recorded just 370,000 births in 2024 and logged a natural population loss of nearly 90,500 in the first quarter of 2025
• The total fertility rate remained at a historic low of 1.18 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population
• Southern regions face the steepest losses, with projections pointing to a decline of 3.4 million residents by 2050 and 7.9 million by 2080
• Pension spending is set to rise from 15.4% of GDP in 2023 to 17.1% by 2040, intensifying concerns over debt sustainability and healthcare outlays
• Authorities have rolled out bonuses for new births, reorganized family tax deductions and under-36 home-loan incentives while exploring EU-level migration and talent attraction measures