Overview

• The Documento programmatico di finanza pubblica sent to the Cabinet points to a 2025 deficit around 3% of GDP, setting up a possible early closure of the EU excessive‑deficit procedure once Brussels rules.
• Official forecasts cut GDP growth to 0.5% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026 compared with the spring outlook.
• The government’s draft budget priorities include lowering the IRPEF second bracket from 35% to 33% for incomes of roughly €28,000–€50,000.
• A new but scaled tax‑debt settlement is under study, with leading options of eight years and 96 instalments for smaller liabilities.
• Financing paths feature a targeted €2.5–3 billion bank contribution still to be negotiated, with an unconfirmed €8 billion margin from better net primary spending trends largely unusable under EU rules and about 10% uptake reported for the new two‑year concordato.