Overview
- The country is divided between growing instability in the North and lingering extreme heat in the Centre‑South and islands, a pattern evident by Wednesday 19 August when localized downpours and high temperatures coexisted.
- Weather models project a more organized Atlantic perturbation from 20–22 August with Thursday 20 August flagged as the day of highest concern for northern convective storms.
- Experimental forecasts from Pretemp raise the severe‑weather signal for parts of the Alps and Po Valley to level 2, warning of possible violent gusts up to 90–100 km/h and isolated large hail in the worst localized cases.
- Protezione Civile has issued yellow warnings for thunderstorms in seven southern regions and authorities report recent impacts including a heavy downpour in Rieti and suspended rail service in parts of Calabria.
- Meteorologists say the storms can become unusually violent because weeks of high air and sea temperatures have stored energy and the dry, compacted soils increase runoff, raising the risk of flash floods, transport disruption and complications for ongoing wildfire response.