Overview

• Government technicians estimate a gross cost of roughly €5 billion in 2026 using the 100%/90%/75% banded formula, versus more than €6 billion with a uniform 1.7% uplift across all pensions.
• Pensions up to about €2,500 gross a month receive full indexation, with this group representing 78.9% of beneficiaries and 56.7% of total pension amounts.
• Coalition discussions include possible tighter bands, use of TFR as an annuity to enable earlier exits, and a freeze of the three‑month age hike due in 2027, priced at about €3 billion at steady state.
• Possible budget space is cited from lower sovereign yields, with simulations indicating around €13 billion over two years from reduced interest costs, though decisions remain constrained by fiscal rules.
• The banded revaluation introduced in recent budgets faces judicial scrutiny after a Trento court referred its constitutionality to the Constitutional Court.