Overview

• Draft budget talks are in their final stretch with banks, represented by ABI, waiting to see the text while insurers are included in the sector package.
• The measure targets €6.2 billion previously parked in reserves, with take estimated at about €1.7 billion under the 27.5% option or roughly €2.4–€2.5 billion at 40%, mostly from the nine largest banking groups.
• Fabi warns the mechanism could become a de facto obligation through a presumption of reserve use and urges safeguards to prevent banks from passing costs to customers.
• Government leaders say the proceeds will support healthcare, as Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani characterizes the move as sector contributions rather than a new windfall tax, and Unipol’s Carlo Cimbri signals openness if requests are balanced.
• A recent EU court ruling on IRAP over foreign-subsidiary dividends creates an estimated €1.5 billion state cost and potential bank refunds from 2022, complicating net revenues as bank shares have weakened during the uncertainty.