Overview

• The emerging settlement would allow up to 96 equal monthly instalments over eight years with minimum payments around €50 and would exclude repeat defaulters who abandoned past amnesties.
• The Finance Ministry is leaning toward ordinary lapse rules that cut benefits after two missed payments, with no upfront ‘maxi’ instalments and rapid plan issuance by the collection agency.
• Open items include whether to include debts assigned through 2023 or extend to 2024, and a studied option to stretch to 120 instalments only for large debts with a 5% downpayment.
• Giancarlo Giorgetti signalled a selective package that extends the 50% first‑home renovation incentive, limits pension‑age relief, seeks a negotiated bank contribution, boosts health funding and keeps the deficit on a path below 3%.
• Bank of Italy and the Parliamentary Budget Office warned that higher defence outlays are only partly reflected in plans and may require compensating measures or a safeguard clause, as Istat reports real wages still about 9% below January 2021 levels.