Overview
- Istat’s preliminary release on Friday, October 30, 2026 put annual inflation at 5.4% for October, up from 4.2% in September and with a monthly rise of 0.9%.
- The surge was led by energy prices, which rose 31.4% year-on-year, with regulated energy leaping to +59.5% and non-regulated energy also recording large gains.
- Higher energy costs have spilled into other categories, lifting unprocessed food to +7.5% year-on-year and pushing transport services and the consumer 'cart' measures sharply higher.
- Underlying inflation climbed to 2.0% and the inflation 'acquired' for 2026 now stands at 3.4%, a level above recent IMF projections and one that raises the year-end baseline for price growth.
- The October shock comes as preliminary Q3 GDP showed zero quarter-on-quarter growth, increasing pressure on the government over the 2027 budget and on choices between direct household aid and fiscal restraint.