ISW: Russia’s Spring Offensive Is Underway

Overview

• Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces have likely started their spring–summer push after a jump in mechanized assaults since mid‑March.
• Ukraine’s General Staff logged 116 combat clashes in one day and reported repelling attacks near Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Lyman.
• Commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russian troops carried out 619 assault actions over four days and suffered more than 6,090 killed and wounded in that span, with 8,710 in a week.
• ISW assessed that Russia is unlikely to capture the Donetsk “fortress belt” in 2026 and would likely make only small tactical gains at significant cost.
• Russian officials have begun to set expectations for slow progress and heavy losses, including talk of a steady push toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while Ukraine rejected Valeriy Gerasimov’s claims of gains near Kostiantynivka and Lyman.