Overview

• ISW assesses that Putin likely organised or approved Kremlin insiders sharing with Bloomberg that Russia will keep escalating attacks, including on Ukraine’s energy system.
• Analysts say the Kremlin’s tight control of Russia’s information space suggests the leak was deliberate to shape narratives and pressure Ukraine ahead of winter.
• Bloomberg, citing sources close to the Kremlin, reported that Putin sees escalation as the best way to force talks on his terms and expects limited U.S. moves to bolster Kyiv’s defenses.
• Those sources said Putin intends to continue targeting Ukraine’s power grid and other critical infrastructure while maintaining bilateral dialogue with the United States.
• Bloomberg’s review of Ukraine Air Force Command data found Russian drone and missile strikes rose about 46% in the month following the Aug. 15 Trump–Putin meeting in Anchorage, which included proposals Ukraine rejected to cede unconquered parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.