Overview

• Private consumption is expected to grow by 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by wage gains and increasing employment.
• Investment growth is projected to accelerate from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, bolstered by PNRR funds and strong first-quarter momentum.
• Net foreign demand will subtract 0.2 percentage point from GDP in 2025 and 0.1 point in 2026 as export volumes decline under tariff uncertainty.
• Employment is forecast to expand by 1.1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, driving down the unemployment rate to 5.8% by 2026.
• Inflation is set to moderate over the forecast period as falling energy prices and a demand rebalancing ease consumer price pressures.