Overview
- Istat’s revision published on Tuesday raised 2025 GDP to 0.6% and put the net borrowing ratio at 3.079% of GDP, rounded to 3.1%, leaving Italy inside the EU excessive‑deficit corrective procedure.
- Because Italy remains in the corrective ‘braccio’, the government cannot freely program the full €36 billion available under the EU safeguard for energy and defence without that extra borrowing continuing to count toward deficit targets.
- A late surge of Superbonus tax‑credit claims — reported at roughly €8.1–8.4 billion — and ongoing checks by the Agenzia delle Entrate and Guardia di Finanza that have flagged about €4.1 billion as illegitimate helped push the 2025 balance higher and complicate final accounting.
- The revision raised the 2025 deficit estimate by €355 million versus April, and it forces Rome to update its macro framework, secure UPB validation, and decide quickly whether to seek partial clause use or pursue internal reallocation and emergency financing.
- The political fallout is acute: Matteo Salvini is pressing for a large scostamento to fund priorities, senior Fratelli d’Italia figures urge fiscal caution, and the split will shape the next budget and pre‑election spending choices as Eurostat and the Commission prepare formal checks this autumn.