Overview

• Istat reports GDP fell 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q2 2025 and rose 0.4% year on year, with growth acquired for 2025 at 0.5%.
• Household and public consumption made zero contribution, while investment added 0.2 percentage points and inventory changes added 0.4 points.
• Net external demand subtracted 0.7 points as exports declined 1.7% and imports increased 0.4%.
• Agriculture fell 0.6% and industry 0.3% as services were flat, with hours worked up 0.2% and per‑capita employee wages up 0.9%.
• Consumer groups and opposition parties warned of recession risk and tariff headwinds, noting August ‘shopping cart’ inflation at 3.5% year on year and MEF projections of a potential 0.5‑point GDP hit in 2026.