Overview
- Israel recognized Somaliland in December 2025, a step Somaliland’s president described as breaking decades of diplomatic isolation.
- The African Union rejects recognition on precedent grounds, saying it would erode the continent’s doctrine of inherited borders.
- The analysis argues the decision boosts Somaliland’s strategic value while heightening risk in a crowded, militarized maritime corridor.
- Regional blocs are hardening, with Israel, the UAE and Somaliland aligned against states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Djibouti and Somalia.
- China opposes broader recognition due to precedent concerns along a key naval corridor, and Ethiopia has recalibrated after retreating from a 2024 Somaliland memorandum.