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Israel Votes in Tight Election That Will Decide Netanyahu’s Future

Coalition math, tens of thousands of returning expatriate voters, public pressure for a state inquiry into the Oct. 7 security failures will decide who can form a government.

Overview

  • Voting is taking place Tuesday in a razor‑close race between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar with no side assured of the 61 seats needed to govern.
  • Large public protests have demanded an independent state commission to investigate the Oct. 7, 2023 security failures that left about 1,200 people dead and 251 abducted, and Netanyahu has declined to create such a commission.
  • Tens of thousands of expatriate Israelis flew home to vote and election managers and analysts say those returns could tip narrow seat counts in several districts.
  • The balance will likely be decided by small parties and Arab lists that can act as kingmakers and coalition talks could take days or weeks with Netanyahu remaining caretaker prime minister if no coalition is formed.
  • The vote carries wide security and diplomatic consequences because the contest follows three years of multi‑front wars, raised manpower and conscription tensions over Haredi exemptions, and a U.S. endorsement from President Donald Trump that the prime minister has spotlighted on the campaign trail.