Overview

• Oil benchmarks retreated by about 1% early Monday, with Brent trading near $74 and West Texas Intermediate around $73 per barrel after last week’s largest single-day surge in three years.
• Rystad Energy forecasts that crude will stay below $80 per barrel even as the conflict intensifies, citing limited disruption to global supply routes.
• GasBuddy’s Patrick de Haan and AAA data indicate U.S. pump prices could rise by 5 to 30 cents per gallon over the next two weeks, with some regions already posting modest increases.
• Analysts warn that any closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil flows—could drive crude above $100 per barrel.
• The International Energy Agency holds over 1.2 billion barrels in emergency reserves and is prepared to release supplies if the crisis threatens market stability.