Overview

• Missile and drone exchanges have damaged Israel’s Haifa refinery and Iran’s South Pars gas field, prompting partial shutdowns.
• Brent crude surged by about $10 per barrel at the start of the conflict, then retreated below $75 on hopes of containment.
• Analysts warn that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices toward $120 a barrel if the conflict widens.
• Rystad Energy projects oil will stay below $80 per barrel, while other forecasters see a stabilizing role for the US in capping prices.
• India is convening shipping and trade stakeholders this week to mitigate risks and affirms it has sufficient domestic oil stocks.