Overview

• Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran retaliated with a drone attack, marking a significant escalation in their long-running tensions.
• Brent crude futures rose over 7% to around $74.40 per barrel, making it one of the biggest oil market rallies since early 2022.
• JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs analysts warn that a full-scale conflict could drive prices above $100 a barrel and slash Iranian output by up to 1.75 million barrels per day for six months.
• Strategists caution that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk to global supply chains but see it as unlikely given Iran’s dependence on Chinese oil sales.
• Oxford Economics estimates that each $10 rise in oil prices would add half a percentage point to inflation, underscoring rising concerns over renewed price pressures.