Overview

• Escalating Israel-Iran hostilities have pushed Brent crude into the $73-76 per barrel range, up from about $65 in April-May 2025.
• Every $10 rise in crude prices can shave 0.3% off India’s GDP growth and add 0.4% to consumer inflation.
• Higher fuel costs are raising operating expenses for airlines and boosting input prices for sectors such as specialty chemicals, paints and tyres.
• Upstream oil producers are benefiting from higher prices even as refiners see margins squeezed by elevated input costs and limited pricing power.
• A sustained crude price rally coupled with rupee depreciation has increased India’s import bill and prompted the Reserve Bank to intervene to support forex reserves.