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Israel Election Race Hangs on Last‑Minute Mergers as Small Parties Reshape Coalitions

Final slate changes will determine which leader can build a 61‑seat coalition based on which minor lists pass the 3.25% threshold.

Overview

  • The right‑wing camp has fractured into multiple small lists and the Likud publicly urged unity while sealing deals that let MK Tally Gotliv leave Likud to run on Itamar Ben‑Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit list, a move confirmed Thursday.
  • Several far‑right technical alliances were finalized this week, including a Religious Zionism tie with Moshe Feiglin, and polls that count those lists above the threshold show a large boost to Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc.
  • Other surveys taken in the same period show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar tied with or ahead of Likud, underscoring wide methodological variation that makes seat totals highly sensitive to small vote swings.
  • Officials in the anti‑Netanyahu Together camp are stepping up merger talks with Yashar as defections and retirements weaken their separate prospects and party leaders race to finalize slates by the September 8 deadline.
  • Because Israel uses nationwide proportional representation and a 3.25% cutoff, votes lost to lists that fail to enter the Knesset could decisively shift which bloc can reach the 61 seats needed to form a government and will shape daily life through coalition policy and security leadership.