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9h ago

Israel and US Officials Threaten Strike on Iran’s Khamenei as Regime Collapse Risks Mount

Targeting Ayatollah Khamenei risks unleashing militia fiefdoms, plunging Iran into civil strife.

People shop at a market, as they prepare for Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Tehran, Iran on March 12, 2024.
An Iranian couple walking in a park, with exhibited Iranian missiles in the background in Tehran, Iran, on January 20, 2024.
Iranian people walk along the streets in Tehran, Iran, on February 24, 2024. A mural on Enqelab Avenue features the supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, left, soldier Hossein Fahmideh, and the spiritual leader of the Iranian revolution Ayatollah Khomeini.
In this 2006 photo, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves next to a portrait of Iran's late founder of Islamic republic Ayatollah Khomeini during a meeting in Tehran.

Overview

  • President Trump ruled out an imminent strike on Khamenei but described him as an "easy target," even as he weighs joining Israel’s assault on Iran.
  • Recent Israeli airstrikes have hit Iranian military and nuclear sites, securing aerial superiority and intensifying missile exchanges.
  • Analysts warn that removing Khamenei could create a power vacuum, enabling IRGC factions to carve out rival fiefdoms over key oil and infrastructure assets.
  • Long-standing tensions among Azeris, Arabs, Baloch and Kurds may erupt into separatist conflicts and draw in neighboring states.
  • A fractured Iran risks becoming a marketplace for ballistic missiles and enriched uranium, heightening the threat of non-state nuclear proliferation.