Overview

• Israel and Iran have exchanged escalating strikes, with Israel targeting Iranian military sites and Tehran launching hundreds of missiles in return.
• President Trump said he will decide on whether to intervene militarily within two weeks, a timeline that Goldman Sachs estimates carries a 65% probability of action by July.
• Vessel-tracking data shows oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz steady at about 42–45 tankers per day, though container and bulk carrier traffic has dipped.
• Brent crude spiked over 10% to above $77 a barrel this week before falling more than 3% after Trump’s delay, while the US dollar gained on safe-haven demand.
• India’s Commerce Ministry under Secretary Sunil Barthwal met shipping and trade stakeholders to evaluate the conflict’s effect on freight rates and energy imports, and explore alternative routes.