Overview
- ISMA’s first advance estimate pegs 2025–26 gross sugar production at 34.35 million tonnes before ethanol diversion, about 16% higher than last season.
- Maharashtra’s output is projected around 13 million tonnes, up roughly 39% on better rainfall and reservoirs, while Karnataka is seen at 6.35 million tonnes, up about 16%.
- Uttar Pradesh’s cane area is estimated down about 3%, yet gross output is expected to edge up to around 10.32 million tonnes on improved yield and recovery.
- Total cane acreage is put at about 5.73 million hectares, only a marginal increase year on year, based on October satellite imagery and field observations.
- With consumption near 28.5 million tonnes, ethanol diversion around 3.4 million tonnes and opening stocks of 5 million tonnes, ISMA warns of a surplus near 7.5 million tonnes and urges permission for roughly 2 million tonnes of exports, which officials have signalled they may allow but have not approved.