Overview

• Official campaigning began July 3 for the July 20 vote that will decide half of the upper house’s 248 seats.
• The LDP-Komeito coalition holds 141 seats and needs to win at least 50 of the 125 contested seats to maintain its working majority.
• Analysts warn that failing to capture enough seats would likely prompt Ishiba’s resignation and trigger a new LDP leadership election.
• Voter frustration over inflation and a rice supply emergency led to the farm minister’s replacement and the release of emergency reserves to stabilize prices.
• Opposition parties including the CDPJ, DPP and right-wing Sanseito are campaigning on tax cuts and nationalist slogans but remain too divided to mount a viable government alternative.