Overview
- Researchers model severe and mild cut scenarios, projecting up to 22.6 million excess deaths by 2030 under deeper reductions and 9.4 million under a milder path.
- The analysis estimates 5.4 million children under five would die under the severe scenario, with 2.5 million under the milder scenario.
- The United States, Britain, Germany and France have already reduced aid for the first time in nearly three decades and are poised for further 2025 cuts.
- Britain, France, the Netherlands and Belgium have announced reductions of 40%, 37%, 30% and 25%, respectively, with modeled severe cuts reaching 25% in the poorest countries and 28% in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Submitted to The Lancet for peer review, the study warns that simultaneous cutbacks could reverse decades of progress and leave little scope for adaptive responses in recipient countries.