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IRS Opens Filing Season With Bigger Refunds Projected Under New Tax Law

Retroactive provisions plus unchanged 2025 withholding push savings into lump‑sum payouts.

Overview

  • Filing began January 26 with the IRS expecting about 164 million individual returns, and the deadline set for April 15.
  • Treasury projects roughly $429 billion in refunds this season with average payouts about $1,000 higher, pushing typical refunds above $4,000.
  • Key changes include deductions for qualified tips (up to $25,000), overtime pay (up to $12,500 or $25,000 for joint filers), a $6,000 senior deduction, a higher SALT cap of $40,000, and car‑loan interest, generally claimed via new Schedule 1‑A.
  • Paper refund checks are being phased out under an executive order, so most filers must provide direct deposit information, with options available for taxpayers without bank accounts and the ability to split refunds into up to three accounts.
  • The National Taxpayer Advocate warns the IRS has about 27% fewer employees, raising the risk of delays and errors, while EITC and Additional CTC refunds face a statutory hold until at least March 2.