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IRS Flags Bigger 2026 Refunds as Trump’s Tax Changes Outrun 2025 Withholding

Retroactive OBBBA changes alongside unchanged 2025 withholding set up unusually large refunds.

Overview

  • Experts say many workers overpaid in 2025 because withholding tables were not updated after the OBBBA, setting up larger refunds when filing 2025 returns in early 2026.
  • Inflation-adjusted 2026 brackets and standard deductions are in place, and updated withholding this year is expected to yield slightly larger paychecks for most workers.
  • New and expanded breaks include capped deductions for tips and overtime, a $6,000 deduction for many seniors, and a higher SALT cap that helps only itemizers, with phaseouts limiting eligibility for higher earners.
  • Analysts and lawmakers warn the IRS may struggle to process returns quickly due to staffing losses, leadership gaps and extensive form updates, creating a risk of delays.
  • The IRS urges taxpayers to set up online accounts, opt for direct deposit as paper checks are phased out, and remember to report gig payments and digital-asset transactions, including where 1099-K thresholds apply.