Overview
- The department’s baseline shows the deficit widening to about 7.9% and debt rising to roughly 148% of GNI by 2065 absent policy change.
- The old-age dependency ratio is projected to climb to 55.2%, with workers per non-worker falling from 116:100 today to 98:100 by 2065.
- Age-related costs would absorb 46% of day-to-day spending by 2065 as healthcare, long-term care and pensions outpace revenue.
- Booming corporation tax receipts are forecast to recede toward historical norms between 2030 and 2040, exposing a key vulnerability in the tax base.
- Growth is expected to slow from about 3% near term to around 0.5% by the mid-2060s, with inward migration needed to delay labour-force decline even as climate and debt-service costs increase.