Overview
- SEAI projects transport emissions at 57.7 MtCO2eq for 2021–2025, overshooting the 54 Mt ceiling by 3.7 Mt and requiring carryover into the 2026–2030 budget.
- Electricity is forecast to exceed its five‑year allocation by about 0.8 MtCO2eq, with SEAI indicating the overrun could occur by November.
- First‑half 2025 figures show residential heating emissions fell, including roughly a 9% drop in natural‑gas emissions, leaving the sector on track to remain within its ceiling.
- Transport trends in H1 2025 were mixed: total emissions down 2%, road diesel demand down 3.2%, petrol up 4%, and jet kerosene deliveries up 5%.
- Electricity imports rose 21.9% to 17.1% of grid supply as renewable output varied (solar up 72%, wind broadly flat, hydro down 42%), and emissions from imported power are excluded from Ireland’s totals.