Overview
- Iran’s leadership continues to speak with one voice in public while a growing private rivalry divides hardliners who oppose talks and pragmatists who favor negotiation as a tool.
- Ultra-hardline Paydari figures have stepped up rallies, funerals and state-broadcaster pressure to sideline officials who press for talks, including cutting live broadcasts of senior leaders.
- Supporters of President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf argue negotiation should complement military pressure to extract concessions and relieve economic pain.
- A ceasefire struck in April won broad backing inside the Supreme National Security Council but collapsed when promised financial returns and the release of frozen assets did not materialize.
- Uncertainty about Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s position, rising inflation and social unrest mean the internal fight could shape who controls Iran’s postwar policy and whether sanctions relief returns.