Overview
- Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said in a video that the conflict could spread into the Indian Ocean if the United States launches another attack, a statement published on Thursday.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it may change weapons, tactics and targets if the U.S. escalates, signaling lower thresholds for where and how Tehran could respond.
- Traffic through key chokepoints has plunged, with Reuters reporting only 17 commodity vessels passed the Strait of Hormuz over a recent weekend versus a pre-war daily average of about 125.
- Energy markets have already reacted: Brent crude topped $100 a barrel in September and India’s crude basket averaged roughly $102 a barrel, raising import bills and fuel costs.
- If the theatre shifts into the Indian Ocean, insurers and carriers could raise premiums and force longer routing, which would add shipping costs and deepen supply and price pressure for countries that import most of their oil, including India.