Overview
- Polling averages show President Trump’s net approval sliding from minus 13 to minus 17 since late February, when Operation Epic Fury expanded the Iran campaign.
- Nonpartisan handicappers now say House Democrats are favored to net the three seats needed for a majority, with the Senate competitive if current trends persist.
- Higher oil prices tied to the conflict are lifting transportation costs and squeezing household budgets, which is shaping voter views of the economy.
- Recent contests in Wisconsin and Georgia featured Democratic overperformance compared with 2024 results, reinforcing the broader shift in the electorate.
- Foreign policy ranked low for voters in 2024 exit polls at just 4 percent, creating a mismatch between the war’s prominence and what voters say they want addressed.